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Scenarica's avatar

Seth's argument has a dimension he does not name, and it may be the most consequential one. If the body's metabolism and the continuity of biological time are load-bearing for cognition, as he argues, then the current AI trajectory has a ceiling that no amount of compute will overcome, because the missing ingredients are architectural.

That claim, stated plainly, is the single most expensive unanswered question in the market right now. The entire AI capital buildout, hundreds of billions a year in data centres and chips, is priced on an implicit assumption that scaling computation produces capability gains with no hard ceiling. Seth's position, whether he frames it this way or not, is that there is a hard ceiling, and it is set by substrate, not by scale. If he is right, the current capex trajectory is building toward a capability asymptote the market has not priced in.

The reason this matters beyond philosophy is that the two sides cannot both be right, and the market has already placed its bet. It has bet on substrate-independence: that cognition is algorithmic, that more compute produces more intelligence, and that the architecture question is a detail. Seth has bet on substrate-dependence: that what brains are determines what brains do, and that silicon cannot reproduce the thing biology provides. One of those two positions will be vindicated over the next decade, and the distance between them is measured in trillions.

What makes this hard to price is that neither side has a test. Seth himself says he has no idea whether his hypothesis holds. The market has no test either, only a spending trajectory and a bet that capability curves keep rising. So the most important variable in the largest capital allocation in history is currently unfalsifiable, which means it is being priced on conviction rather than evidence. That is worth sitting with.

Francesco Lappano's avatar

To me, the most important question about AI is whether humans start seeing themselves as machines, rather than whether machines become more human.

When we reduce ourselves to information processing, we lose sight of the thing we're actually trying to explain: a living organism having an experience.

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